UCP members preparing for Kenney exit

Already, speculation is swirling about who will replace Jason Kenney as premier of Alberta.

Government MLAS are being approached by party officials to test their appetite to lead a fractious United Conservative Party that is splitting not so much into left or right divisions — red or blue teams — but into maskers and anti-maskers, those in favour of vaccine passports and those who are militant against them. Never has the urban-rural divide been more stark, and many of the rural MLAS who are in favour of vaccines and vaccine passports are not in line with their own constituents regarding their antipathy against vaccine passports.

According to government insiders who spoke on the condition of anonymity, Kenney is beginning to realize that he cannot hold onto his job as premier, but wants to hold off making any political moves that lead to an expedited leadership review for fear of who will gain control of the party he worked so hard to form and lead.

Tuesday's mini cabinet shuffle — basically a job swap — moved Tyler Shandro out of Alberta's troubled health portfolio into Labour and Immigration. Calgary Varsity MLA Jason Copping, who was viewed as a competent labour and immigration minister, has been moved into the health portfolio, “because he doesn't have any leadership hopes going forward. It's recognized,” said the source, “that whoever moves into the health portfolio in Alberta is really a sacrificial lamb,” said a government source.

“People with future political ambitions don't want to touch the health portfolio because they see the divisions in the caucus and the province and how fraught it all is,” said the source. “It's a minefield.”

Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt says this job swap — that occurred in Edmonton in a low-key ceremony in which Alberta Lt.-gov. Salma Lakhani oversaw the new ministers' oaths of office — will not quell the anger against Kenney, who is viewed as being responsible for the dire situation facing our hospitals. Had the province not increased the number of ICU beds in the province, Kenney said Tuesday our hospitals would be at 169 per cent of capacity. The province is also making contingency arrangements to airlift sick patients out of province in the days and weeks to come.

Another government source said that ironically, a couple of

UCP riding officials are in hospital battling for their lives over COVID-19 — a disease that they had denied even existed — though he refused to say who they are.

“If they weren't in hospital fighting for their lives, they'd be calling on Jason to step down for bringing in vaccine passports,” said the source.

Currently, Alberta's expanded ICUS are at 87 per cent of capacity and most non-urgent surgeries in the province have been cancelled.

“It's a cliché, but this is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic,” said Bratt of the cabinet shuffle.

“This is a power move by Kenney. It `s clear, he was waiting until after the federal election to make this announcement and it's not going to save him,” said Bratt.

“I think we're sitting with a situation where the caucus is so divided and the cabinet is so divided, but the one thing that they all do agree on is that the premier has to go,” said Bratt. “But don't underestimate the political infighting skills of Jason Kenney.”

Another government source said Kenney is holding his cards close to his vest but did confide that if there was a leadership contest during this fourth wave, it would revolve around whether someone was promask or anti-mask, pro-vaccine or anti-vaccine, and that would destroy the party's chances going forward in a general election.

“Timing, as they say in politics, is everything,” added yet another source. “(Kenney) is doing everything he can to protect this party to ensure the economic future of this province and to ensure that an anti-vax crazy doesn't have a mobilized base that sells more memberships than anyone else and takes down the party.”

The premier says he accepted Shandro's resignation, recognizing it was time for “a fresh start and new set of eyes” on the largest department in the government.

“When I asked Tyler to serve as health minister in April of

2019, nobody, nobody could have predicted the crisis that he would be tasked with taking on,” Kenney said Tuesday at a 5 p.m. media conference.

Another government insider who asked to remain anonymous says Shandro had had enough of “being public enemy No. 1, where his wife and children are even sometimes accosted because of government decisions.”

Shandro famously tore up the contract for Alberta physicians in February 2020, just one month before Alberta and the rest of the country entered into its first COVID-19 lockdown. It's acknowledged and recognized that his move came at the behest of Kenney, who was following the recommendations made by the panel led by former Saskatchewan finance minister Janice Mackinnon. Many rural physicians left or considered leaving the province for greener pastures, and bitterness still remains.

Kenney says Shandro offered his resignation and they both came to the same conclusion that the time was right for a change. “It has been a gruelling two-plus years for Tyler. I was there myself and saw he and his family being chased and assaulted by anti-vaccine protesters, and all of that has taken a real toll on Minister Shandro,” said Kenney, referring to the Canada Day event when Shandro, his wife and their young children were accosted by supporters of fringe mayoral candidate Kevin J. Johnston, who was in jail at the time for uttering threats to health officials.

Another government source, who only spoke on the condition of anonymity, said he has already been approached to consider running for the leadership of the party, something he is going to discuss with his family.

The leadership train is leaving a station that just two years ago looked like it was going to be parked for a very long time.