‘A nasty, formidable foe’

OMICRON VARIANT CASES GROW IN CANADA, BUT BIDEN CAUTIONS THAT IT’S ‘NOT A TIME FOR PANIC’

The new Omicron variant of the coronavirus is likely already in circulation in Canada, health officials said Monday, as cases were reported in Quebec and Ontario, just as they have been across Europe and Africa, three days after the World Health Organization flagged the potentially dangerous new mutation.

After finding the first two North American cases in travellers from Nigeria, health officials in Ontario are anticipating imminent test results from four other people suspected of having this worrying strain of the virus that causes COVID-19.

Quebec reported its first confirmed case Monday afternoon.

The new variant, with its genetic profile that suggests it spreads even more efficiently than the dominant Delta variant, has amplified fears of a new wave of the airborne pandemic. It comes as vaccines are in abundant supply in many countries, but colder weather in the northern hemisphere has increased indoor mixing. Ontario, for example, has seen its daily case count spike in recent days after a steady decline since the summer.

When Omicron became the latest WHO “variant of concern” last Friday, financial markets panicked, and countries — including Canada — imposed flight bans on southern African countries, where the variant seems most prevalent. Japan on Monday closed its borders entirely to foreigners.

But like many other border shutdowns, there was worry in Canada and elsewhere that this horse has already bolted from the barn, and the variant has been in global circulation for longer than surveillance agencies have known. It was first identified in early November in South Africa, and is thought to have emerged from a large unvaccinated population, possibly from a single chronic case.

The WHO said the spike of cases in South Africa driven by Omicron has raised concerns about increased transmissibility and hospitalization rates, but there is no conclusive evidence the variant is any worse than others.

Preliminary evidence shows Omicron presents an increased risk of reinfection and that “people who have previously had COVID-19 could become reinfected more easily with Omicron,” the WHO said.

When the two Ontario cases of the new variant arrived from Nigeria by plane into Montreal’s airport last week, it was only a random testing program that identified them, by which point they had travelled onward to Ottawa, where they remain in isolation, according to Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore.

That suggests the new variant of concern is already in circulation in Canada, as other countries have similarly been discovering, including cases in Scotland with no link to travel, and in Australia, and many other countries in western Europe, in addition to southern Africa. Moore urged the federal government to broaden the testing of returning travellers at airports.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday did not reveal any positive tests in America, but made remarks calling Omicron “a cause for concern, not a cause for panic.”

In Ontario, Moore called this new variant “a nasty, formidable foe” with a worrying genetic profile that suggests increased transmissibility, and said efforts are underway with federal counterparts to increase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing that reveals the genetics of a virus, rather than just a positive/negative result. This is key to tracking different variants.

“We were fortunate to pick up these two cases, given that it was part of a random testing,” Moore said.

Hundreds of people have recently returned from the seven southern African countries that Canada last Friday placed under a flight ban, and efforts are being made to track them down for testing under the federal Quarantine Act.

“These (two Ottawa) cases are being monitored very closely,” Moore said in a Monday morning media briefing. “We are investigating other cases, and I would not be surprised if we found more in Ontario,” he said.

Four other suspect cases are awaiting whole genome sequencing: two in Ottawa and two in Hamilton.

Moore said he knows the news about this new variant “feels concerning” but he pointed to the robust testing system as reason for reassurance.

“To me the system’s working,” he said. “We would just like to see it expanded.”

South African authorities made the same point in announcing their discovery of the new variant earlier this month, knowing it was risking discrimination in the global response, but erring on the side of transparency.

Moore said it has likely been in global circulation for “many, many weeks, if not months.”

The Delta variant, which accounts for nearly all current cases in Canada, took three or four months to become dominant after the first detected case, he said. Omicron might take less time, given initial reports about its enhanced transmissibility due to mutations in spike proteins that help the virus enter cells.

The crucial public health question is whether it is more virulent, whether the sickness is worse. Early reports have suggested this is not the case, and that it may even be more mild than other variants of concern, but that monitoring is in its very early days.

The next few weeks will be critical to determining whether this new variant has an effect on hospital numbers. If it does not, Ontario’s current strategy will continue, Moore said.

He said Ontario is wellequipped and able to respond to emerging new variants, including this one and others that inevitably arise in a global population, due to the fundamental evolutionary dynamics of random mutation and natural selection.