Has Trudeau stabbed himself in the back?

Failure to win majority could cost him

So what shall we call that election: a farce, a joke, a Pyrrhic victory? Whatever the label it might well be that in 18 months — about the same time as Justin Trudeau could have continued to govern without calling an election — we could see ourselves back at the polls.

Minority governments in Canada generally last about 18 months, although after Monday night one might expect Trudeau to be a little gun shy before rushing back to the electorate.

But who knows, having called one divisive, cynical election in the hopes of securing a majority who can predict what he will do.

Trudeau ran a campaign fuelled more by anger than hope. Even three-quarters of his own Liberal supporters said he appeared angry, according to a Postmedia-Leger poll on the weekend.

However, in the early hours of Tuesday morning it was back to highlighting sunny ways as his victory speech talked of coming through the dark days together, the “warmth of a new dawn” and seizing “the promise of a brand new day.”

“Some have talked about division, but that's not what I see. That's not what I've seen these past weeks, across the country. I see Canadians, standing together,” Trudeau said.

Did he forget the gravel thrower, the protests outside hospitals, the huge anti-vaxxer rallies held by Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada, or the many wedge issues he inserted into the election, including at the end a non-too subtle message that was essentially: Vote Tory and Die.

If Trudeau is blind to these things, he will have a hard time building any unity.

But for all his faux enthusiasm he may have done what few contortionists can do — stabbed himself in the back.

If you were a Liberal MP would you be putting all your hopes and dreams on Trudeau being able to win a fourth mandate next time?

The bloom has long gone off the rose that won a majority government in 2015. And for the hubris of calling an election this time, voters basically punished the prime minister by holding their noses and handing him back the minority he won in 2019.

So if we are back at the polls in 18 months, do the Liberals want to see Trudeau as the man leading the party having done badly this time?

Another 18 months will give Canadians more time to get to know Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole, who fared better than people expected and ran a decent, if slightly underwhelming, campaign. If the Tories decide to stick with him, and they should, he will be able to mount a better, more sophisticated and more energetic operation next time.

It would be unwise to count Trudeau out, he continues to perform as the consummate politician — I don't say that as a compliment — who is willing to say anything to stay in power. (In case you missed it, in the dying days of the campaign last week he refused to rule out electoral reform, saying ranked ballots were less divisive. This from the man who in 2015 pledged that election would be the last under the first-past-the-post system, but six years later here we are.)

One senses that Canadians are weary: of COVID, of the restrictions that come with it, of hastily called elections and of politicians grasping for power.

Maybe next time Canadians will be so tired of the status quo they'll vote for change. Maybe some Liberals are so tired of the status quo they are already thinking of change.

If the knives aren't out already, I suspect the cutlery drawer is certainly open.