National Post ePaper

PM to step down before next election, insiders say

Trudeau due to reveal future plans this week

STEVE SCHERER AND DAVID LJUNGGREN

OTTAWA • In the wake of an election that saw Justin Trudeau fail in his bid to win a majority government after a low-energy campaign, Liberals insiders see an increasing chance the prime minister will step down before the next vote.

Four senior Liberals said there was no sign of a coordinated move to oust Trudeau, who has imposed tight control over a party known for previous bouts of infighting.

But coming up short of his goal in his third election cast immediate doubts on the future of his leadership and could spur him to leave of his own accord. No prime minister for more than 100 years has won four consecutive elections.

“This is his party at this point, we are his party,” said a Liberal who helped run the campaign and requested anonymity, given the sensitivity of the situation.

“I'm not sure, if I were him, I'd want to run again ... you don't really want to wear out your welcome to such an extent that your successor gets trashed in the next election.”

Trudeau's potential successors include Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

Trudeau called a snap vote after opposition legislators blocked his budget and other bills during a charged June session, three well-placed sources said.

“The events of June made clear we had to go to the polls in the summer. It was just too painful — we couldn't go through that again,” said one Liberal.

But from the day Trudeau made the call on Aug. 15, he had trouble dealing with opposition accusations that it was a power grab.

“There was a recoil (by voters). Trudeau said `I have good numbers. I can go into an election,' not realizing that he had good numbers because there was no election,” said Philippe Fournier, analyst at the 338.com political website.

Other insiders said Trudeau and his inner circle had failed to realize that the people they would need to run the campaign were exhausted after 15 months fighting COVID-19.

Halfway through, a second Liberal said campaign workers were “just so tired, they don't care if they win or lose.”

In response, Trudeau spokesman Cameron Ahmad said “campaign staff worked incredibly hard every step of the way, as they always do.” He did not address questions about Trudeau's future or whether the early election call had been a mistake.

One senior strategist said canvassers knocking on doors were picking up unhappiness with Trudeau.

Still, even as Trudeau's numbers began to fall in August, Liberal campaign officials initially expressed little concern.

“These first two weeks are just froth, there's nothing to it. Nobody's paying attention much,” said a third Liberal.

Asked about the minority, the first Liberal said: “It is what it is ... Canadians decided that's what they wanted.”

Among the public, Trudeau himself generated more fatigue than excitement.

“The problem was that right from the start, we never came up with a good answer to the obvious question of `Why are you calling an unnecessary election in the middle of a pandemic?' ” a Liberal strategist said towards the end of the campaign as it became clear a majority was not on the cards.

After the election, Liberals sketched out a possible scenario whereby Trudeau would make clear he intended to keep the government alive for at least three years, giving him time to focus on priorities such as child care and battling climate change while pondering his future.

Trudeau is due to speak publicly this week and could offer details on what he's planning.

A senior adviser and a senior lawmaker said Trudeau didn't want to be in power forever, but would fight a fourth campaign if the government falls before he can push through significant parts of his agenda.

Minority governments usually last about 18 months but in theory can last four years if no one brings them down.

“The main question becomes, is he having fun? I don't think the next phase of this pandemic is going to be fun, I don't think our fiscal situation is going to be fun,” said another well-placed adviser, putting the chances of Trudeau deciding in early 2023 he would leave at 5050.

“I wouldn't be surprised if this was Trudeau's last election ... winning three backto-back is hard,” said Tamara Small, Professor of political science at the University of Guelph.

Waiting for her son to speak after falling short of his majority goal, his mother Margaret Trudeau, with whom he's very close, was confident a minority government would work out.

“You don't want too much power to end up anywhere, do you?” she told reporters. “I know that Jagmeet is a wonderful man, compassionate like Justin.”

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2021-09-22T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-09-22T07:00:00.0000000Z

https://nationalpost.pressreader.com/article/281805697071877

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